Published
03/02/2026, 17:10The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East has already begun to impact global markets — primarily the energy sector and global logistics. However, for certain countries located at the crossroads of major trade routes, the geopolitical crisis may represent not only risks but also new economic opportunities.
According to economist Iskender Sharsheev, Kyrgyzstan may also gain certain economic advantages despite the overall turbulence in the global economy.
In recent days, the situation in the Middle East has sharply escalated. Following strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran, retaliatory attacks ensued, along with threats to block the Strait of Hormuz — a critical artery of global energy supply. Approximately 20% of the world’s oil shipments pass through this route.
Amid these developments, oil prices surged sharply.
Increases in energy prices directly impact transportation, industrial production, and food costs, adding further inflationary pressure across the globe.
Despite the negative backdrop, some countries may derive economic benefits from shifts in global trade flows.
Economist Iskender Sharsheev believes that Central Asia — and Kyrgyzstan in particular — could receive an additional economic boost.
"As cynical as it may sound, Kyrgyzstan could economically benefit from this. Some markets are already closing, oil prices are rising, and this is affecting the global economy,” — the expert noted.
He noted that higher oil prices and logistical risks could increase global inflation by several percentage points. Simultaneously, patterns of global trade are likely to begin changing.
“There could be a growth in overland shipments of goods from China to Europe. Accordingly, Kyrgyzstan’s re-export earnings may increase, allowing the country to benefit from transit and trade,” — Sharsheev notes.
Kyrgyzstan has played the role of a transit and re-export hub in regional trade for several years. Disruptions in maritime logistics further elevate the strategic significance of overland routes across Central Asia.
However, these economic benefits will be accompanied by new social and infrastructure challenges.
The expert predicts an increase in migration flows.
“There are indications that migration may increase, including among Russians who could be moving from Dubai to Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan.”
This could put additional pressure on domestic housing markets.
According to the economist, the rental and real estate market, which has already surged sharply over the past five years, may continue to rise.
Increased demand from migrants and foreign specialists traditionally leads to higher rental and housing prices in the region’s major cities.
At the same time, Kyrgyzstan will not be able to completely avoid the effects of the global energy crisis. Rising global oil prices inevitably impact the cost of fuel, logistics, and agricultural production, creating additional inflationary pressures within the country.
However, the impact may be less severe than in other regions. According to economist Iskender Sharsheev, the existing agreement with Russia on petroleum supplies plays a significant role.
“We have agreements with Russia, so the rise in fuel prices will not be as sharp as on the global market. However, price increases are already being observed and are likely to continue,” — he says.
According to the expert, even in the event of potential disruptions to global logistics, such as complications in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, this is unlikely to significantly affect fuel supplies to Kyrgyzstan.
However, the increase in oil prices highlights the urgency of implementing long-term structural reforms in energy and transport.
“Everything related to oil will become more expensive. That is why electrification — switching agricultural machinery and transport to electric or hybrid solutions—becomes especially important for us,” — Sharsheev notes.
He notes that lowering oil dependency may prove crucial for the economy’s resilience in the current environment, while the primary risk continues to be geopolitical.
“The issue of regional stability comes to the forefront. We need to strengthen security and prepare for a period of global turbulence,” — the economist concludes.
