170,000 people could fall below the poverty line by 2040

In Kyrgyzstan, climate change has little impact on the overall poverty level, but it increases the risks for vulnerable regions. This is according to a World Bank report, which warns of critical consequences for rural areas in a decade.

New forecasts show that climate change will not be a key cause of poverty growth in Kyrgyzstan. The World Bank expects a slight increase in the number of poor people — by 1.8%–2.2% by 2030–2040 — but by the middle of the century, the situation will return to the baseline scenario.

However, the impact of climate risks will be much more severe in rural areas than in cities. By 2040, an additional 170,000 people could fall below the poverty line due to natural hazards.

A map overlaying poverty levels and flood risks has identified areas with complex problems. Talas stands out in particular: 64% of the city's population lives in an area at high risk of flooding, and 23% is at risk of landslides. The Kochkor district faces an extremely high risk of flooding, affecting almost 49% of the territory, while in the Toguz-Toro district, high poverty levels are accompanied by a 37.5% risk of flooding.