Fitch has affirmed Kyrgyzstan's rating at ‘B’ with a stable outlook

The international credit rating agency Fitch Ratings has affirmed Kyrgyzstan’s long-term foreign currency rating at “B” with a stable outlook.

The agency noted that the rating is supported by a moderate budget deficit, a relatively low level of public debt, and high economic growth rates. In recent years, the country’s economy has grown by an average of more than 10% thanks to active trade, capital inflows, and construction development.

At the same time, Fitch points to a number of headwinds. These include the small size of the economy, dependence on Russia—including for remittances and transit trade—as well as the impact of external geopolitical risks.

“In 2026, GDP growth will slow to around 6% as trade flows normalize. In the medium term, the economy will grow at a rate of 5–5.5% driven by investments in the energy and mining sectors, including the Kambarata HPP-1 and China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan railway projects,” the agency expects.

At the same time, Fitch notes signs of the economy overheating. Inflation accelerated to 8.2% in 2025 and could reach about 9% in 2026. This is due to rising wages, increased lending, and external factors, including oil prices.

Regarding public finances, the agency forecasts an increase in the budget deficit to 3.5% of GDP in 2026 and a gradual rise in public debt to about 43% of GDP in the medium term.

At the same time, the growth of international reserves remains a positive factor; by the end of 2025, they reached $8.6 billion, largely due to the rise in the price of gold.

Fitch also notes persistent risks related to sanctions pressure and potential export restrictions, as well as Kyrgyzstan’s traditional external imbalances.

Overall, the rating affirmation with a stable outlook indicates that the agency does not expect a significant deterioration in the country’s creditworthiness in the near term.