Published
04/10/2026, 11:41Inflation in Kyrgyzstan is projected to accelerate to 10.3% in 2026 and slow to 8.5% in 2027, though it will remain above the National Bank’s target range. This forecast is contained in the April issue of the Asian Development Bank’s report “Asian Development Outlook 2026.”
According to analysts, price growth will be fueled by strong domestic demand, as well as expected increases in electricity and heating tariffs and exchange rate fluctuations. As a result, inflation will remain above the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic’s target range of 5–7% throughout the forecast period.
Under these conditions, the regulator is likely to maintain a tight monetary policy, including currency interventions to curb inflationary pressures.
At the same time, the forecast is accompanied by significant external risks. Geopolitical tensions and instability in global trade could affect supply chains and trade flows. High energy prices remain an additional source of pressure, posing a threat to both inflation and economic growth rates.
Separately, the ADB highlights the structural constraints of Kyrgyzstan’s economy. Despite high growth rates in recent years, labor productivity remains low, and the informal sector accounts for a significant share of the economy. This is largely due to insufficient levels of private investment.
For instance, net foreign direct investment inflows average about 2% of GDP, while private sector lending stands at 23% of GDP—significantly below regional averages.
The bank believes that for sustainable growth, Kyrgyzstan needs to accelerate the transition to an economy that relies more heavily on the private sector and implement comprehensive structural reforms aimed at improving the investment climate and developing productive industries.
