Published
09/08/2025, 09:09In the coming years, Kyrgyzstan's industry is expected to show steady growth. However, in 2028, the key driver of the sector will be the Kumtor Gold Company gold mining enterprise. This is evidenced by data from the law on the republican budget for the coming years, which is currently under discussion.
According to forecasts, industrial production in Kyrgyzstan will grow by 6.8% in 2026, 7.9% in 2027 and 11% in 2028. However, without taking into account the work of Kumtor, the picture changes significantly.
In 2026, growth will even exceed the overall figure and amount to 9.1% — 2.3 percentage points higher than with the gold mining enterprise taken into account. But starting in 2027, Kumtor's role will become decisive. Without it, growth is expected to be 6.2%, which is 1.7 percentage points lower than the official forecast. And by 2028, the dependence will increase — industrial growth without Kumtor will be only 2.4%, compared to 11% overall.
This means that almost all of the expected industrial growth in 2028 will be provided by the country's largest gold mining enterprise. The difference between the overall forecast (+11%) and the figure without Kumtor (+2.4%) is 8.6 percentage points, which clearly demonstrates the sector's dependence on a single asset.
Despite this, the industry without Kumtor also continues to show positive dynamics. Growth is expected in the food and textile industries, oil refining, construction materials production, mining and energy. However, the scale of this growth is significantly lower than Kumtor's contribution.
