Businesses and borrowers in Kyrgyzstan will have to get used to expensive credit — EDB forecast

The Eurasian Development Bank forecasts that tight monetary conditions will persist in Kyrgyzstan in the coming years. According to the bank’s baseline scenario, the National Bank of the Republic’s key policy rate will stand at 11% by the end of 2026.

At the same time, EDB analysts expect the wide interest rate corridor around the discount rate to remain in place—at a level of +2 to –6 percentage points.

Currently, the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic’s discount rate stands at 12%, and the regulator will make its next decision on it early next week, on May 25.

“Loose monetary conditions persist primarily in the interbank market. Despite the high discount rate, the BIR interbank lending rate in 2025 was around 4%,” the EDB notes.

Against this backdrop, the bank’s analysts expect a gradual tightening of conditions in the money market. According to their forecast, the interbank rate will gradually approach the discount rate level and reach 9% by 2028.

As of May 19, the BIR interbank rate stood at 6.18%, remaining significantly below the discount rate.

In effect, the EDB analysts’ statement implies that the cost of money in Kyrgyzstan’s economy will remain high in the coming years.

According to the EDB’s forecast, economic growth in Kyrgyzstan is expected to slow simultaneously: from 10.3% in 2025 to 9.3% in 2026 and 7.6% in 2027. Inflation is projected to reach 8.3% by the end of 2026.