The EBRD has revised its forecast for Kyrgyzstan’s economy amid new EU sanctions

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has revised its economic growth forecast for Kyrgyzstan for 2026. The bank attributed the revision to the expected impact of the European Union’s new package of sanctions.

According to the EBRD’s updated report, Kyrgyzstan’s economy is set to grow by 8.7% in 2026 and by 7% in 2027. Despite the continued high growth rates, analysts point to risks associated with the 20th package of EU sanctions, announced at the end of April.

The restrictions include a ban on the export of dual-use goods to Kyrgyzstan, as well as tighter controls over the financial and logistics sectors. According to the bank’s experts, this could affect economic activity in the country.

That said, in the first quarter of 2026, Kyrgyzstan’s economy demonstrated steady growth thanks to developments in industry, construction and trade. Investment in fixed capital increased by 25.5% compared with the same period last year, driven by investment in infrastructure, energy and housing construction.

The EBRD cites potential rises in energy prices and a slowdown in economic growth in Russia as additional risks to the country’s economy.

Overall, according to the bank’s forecasts, the countries of Central Asia and Mongolia will maintain the highest growth rates among all regions where the EBRD operates. In 2026, the region’s economy will grow by 5.6%, and in 2027 by 5.3%.