The region's economy is accelerating: GDP growth, lower interest rates, and a focus on investment

The Eurasian Development Bank has presented its weekly macroeconomic review, which shows that the economies of the region's countries are demonstrating mixed but generally stable trends at the end of the year, ranging from slowing inflation and lower interest rates to sustained high GDP growth rates.

In Armenia, the Central Bank lowered its refinancing rate by 0.25 percentage points to 6.5% on December 17. Inflation slowed to 3.1% year-on-year in November, and prices for services stabilized. The EDB expects the rate to remain at around this level in 2026.

The Belarusian economy grew by 1.3% year-on-year in January-November. Growth is supported by consumer and investment activity. Retail trade increased by 7.1%, and investment by 11.8%. At the same time, weakening demand from Russia continues to put pressure on industry (-1.7%).

“In 2026, with the implementation of state projects and the acceleration of the Russian economy, GDP will grow by 1.8%,” the EDB expects.

Kazakhstan continues to enjoy high growth rates in the region, at 6.4% for January–November. The drivers are manufacturing (+5.9%), transport (+20.3%), and construction (+14.7%). The expansion of oil production at the Tengiz field (+14.1%) played a significant role. This allowed the export plan to be fulfilled ahead of schedule. The forecast for 2026 is GDP growth of around 5.5%.

Kyrgyzstan's economy is showing the highest growth in the region. GDP for January–November increased by 10.2%. The main drivers remain investment in fixed capital (+18.1%) and growth in retail trade (+9.5%).

“Investment demand will continue to play a key role in 2026, with GDP growth forecast at 9.3%,” according to the EDB.

The Bank of Russia lowered its key rate by 50 basis points to 16% per annum amid slowing inflation. However, inflation expectations among the population remain high (13.7% in December), partly due to the upcoming VAT increase. According to the EDB's assessment, the regulator will maintain tight monetary conditions until at least the second quarter of 2026.

In Tajikistan, inflation stood at 3.2% in November, remaining at the lower end of the target range. Moderate monetary policy and a 15.5% strengthening of the national currency since the beginning of the year are acting as restraining factors. By the end of 2026, inflation is expected to accelerate to 4.5%, but remain within the target range.

Overall, the EDB's macro overview shows that the region is entering 2026 with high investment activity, sustained economic growth in Central Asia, and cautious monetary policy in major economies.