Published
11/07/2026, 17:17Global cereal production in 2026 will fall following the previous year’s record high, but will remain the second-highest on record. According to a forecast by the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO), production will total 2 billion 999 million tonnes.
A decline is expected across all major cereal crops. It will be most pronounced in wheat production, whilst output of feed grains will fall only slightly. Rice production is forecast to fall for the first time in four seasons – by 2.5 per cent, to 552 million tonnes. Among the reasons cited by the FAO are low profitability and adverse weather conditions linked to the El Niño phenomenon.
Global cereal consumption in the 2026–2027 season, by contrast, will increase slightly – by 0.2 per cent – to 2,971 million tonnes. The main increase will be in food consumption. The use of wheat for food will rise by 0.8 per cent, and that of rice by 1 per cent.
Global cereal stocks by the end of the 2027 season may increase by 1.8 per cent, or 17.2 million tonnes. The main increase is expected to come from the build-up of wheat stocks in Russia and Ukraine against a backdrop of disruptions to export shipments.
At the same time, according to the FAO forecast, the volume of global grain trade in the 2026–2027 season will fall by 3.3 per cent to 507.7 million tonnes. The main reason for this will be an 8.6 per cent decline in wheat trade due to supply constraints and logistical difficulties faced by major exporters.
Separately, the FAO notes that 41 countries and territories continue to require external food aid. Of these, 31 are in Africa. Conflicts and insecurity remain the main causes of acute food shortages. Additional risks are linked to weather events caused by El Niño, the effects of which may persist into 2027.
