By 2040, Kyrgyzstan’s labour market will grow by more than 1.1 million people — EFSR forecast

Over the next 15 years, Kyrgyzstan’s working-age population will increase by more than 1.1 million people. This was announced by Marina Grichik, Head of the Macroeconomic Forecasting and Research Section within the EFSD’s Analytical Work Department, at the EABR’s annual meeting and Business Forum.

According to Marina Grichik, the forecast is based on UN demographic estimates. The expert notes that these people have already been born and will gradually enter the labour market in the coming years. Currently, the labour force in Kyrgyzstan stands at around 2.7 million people, so an increase of more than 1.1 million will be significant.

She emphasised that such demographic growth is an advantage for Kyrgyzstan. Unlike Russia, Belarus and many European countries, where the working-age population is shrinking, the republic has the opportunity to expand economic activity and develop new sectors.

However, according to the expert, the key challenge remains the creation of a sufficient number of competitive jobs. One of the study’s unexpected findings was that corporate employment in Kyrgyzstan is growing only slowly, whilst a significant proportion of the population continues to work in the informal sector.

“The main advantage for the country and the potential it can harness is the creation of competitive, high-productivity jobs in the corporate sector,” noted Marina Grichik.

The analysis is based on the UN’s demographic forecast and an assessment of labour market trends in Kyrgyzstan.