The National Bank expects Kyrgyzstan's balance of payments to deteriorate amid rising imports and a decline in remittances from Russia

The National Bank of Kyrgyzstan forecasts that the current account deficit will remain high over the next two years. According to the regulator’s forecast, the deficit will amount to 25.3% of GDP in 2026 and 22.2% in 2027.

The National Bank cites high import volumes as the main reason for the deterioration in the balance. Kyrgyzstan will continue to actively purchase goods abroad for the implementation of major government and infrastructure projects, as well as energy resources, equipment, and consumer goods. At the same time, exports will grow much more slowly.

According to the regulator’s forecast, goods exports will increase by 6.6% in 2026; however, this will be hindered by new measures to control the flow of goods within the Eurasian Economic Union. This refers to the introduction of traceability and delivery verification mechanisms, which could create additional barriers for Kyrgyz exports, especially in the first half of 2026.

An additional negative factor will be a decline in remittances from migrant workers in Russia. The National Bank expects that remittance inflows from workers will decrease by 4.1% as early as 2026 due to the tightening of migration legislation and administrative controls in the Russian Federation.

In 2027, the decline in remittances may continue—by another 2.9%. In addition to Russian migration policy, the regulator attributes this to the implementation of the “Mekenim 1+1” program, which aims to repatriate some migrant workers and integrate them into the Kyrgyz economy.

At the same time, the National Bank expects that part of the deficit will be covered by foreign investment and capital inflows. The main sources of financing are expected to be foreign direct investment and private sector investment.

“In 2027, there is a risk of insufficient capital inflows to cover the deficit. In that case, Kyrgyzstan may need to use the National Bank’s international reserves,” the regulator warns.

Among the key risks to the economy, the regulator highlights ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, a possible slowdown in partner countries’ economies, and the growing debt burden of the private sector.