The National Bank has lowered its forecast for Kyrgyzstan’s economic growth in 2027 to 7.6 per cent

The National Bank has revised its forecast for Kyrgyzstan’s real GDP growth in 2027 from 9 per cent to 7.6 per cent. The forecast has therefore been lowered by 1.4 percentage points.

The regulator’s previous medium-term forecast was published in December 2025, with the updated version released in May 2026. However, the forecast for 2026 remains unchanged; the National Bank still expects the economy to grow by approximately 10 per cent.

The high growth rates in 2026 will be supported by government programmes and the implementation of large-scale infrastructure projects. The main contribution is expected to come from construction, wholesale and retail trade. Additional support will be provided by the expansion of existing production facilities, the opening of new enterprises and tourism activity.

In its baseline scenario, the National Bank takes into account geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East, moderate growth in the economies of Kyrgyzstan’s main trading partners, and high volatility in global commodity prices.

Among domestic factors, the regulator highlights stimulative fiscal policy, increases in electricity and utility tariffs, and rising inflationary expectations amongst the population.

The National Bank does not specify the reason for the downward revision of the 2027 forecast from 9 per cent to 7.6 per cent. Despite the revision, the expected rates of economic growth remain relatively high.