The National Bank raised the discount rate to 11%

On 24 November 2025, the Board of the National Bank decided to raise the discount (key) rate by 100 basis points to 11%. The decision comes into force on 25 November 2025.

The National Bank notes that inflation since the beginning of the year has been 7.3%, and 8.9% in annual terms. Current price dynamics are largely influenced by external factors: rising global food prices, increased inflation in the countries of the region, and the rising cost of imported goods. Non-food goods are contributing most to price growth, against the backdrop of higher electricity tariffs, rising fuel prices, high domestic consumption and secondary effects. At the same time, food inflation remains relatively moderate.

Economic activity in the country continues to grow. In January–October 2025, real GDP increased by 10% thanks to sustained consumer demand and growth in investment activity. The main contributors were the services sector, construction and industry. Real wage growth, increased remittances and expanded consumer lending are supporting domestic demand. Investment continues to grow, mainly from domestic sources, supporting the development of the construction sector.

Monetary conditions The National Bank is focused on returning inflation to the medium-term target range of 5–7%. The interbank BIR rate is held at the lower end of the interest rate corridor, reflecting high liquidity surplus. The foreign exchange market is stable, and the growth of international reserves strengthens resilience to external shocks.

The banking sector remains stable and highly liquid. At the end of the first nine months of 2025, the banks' loan portfolio grew by 35.2% and the deposit base by 35.7%. Dollarisation continues to decline: the share of deposits fell to 35% and loans to 17.8%. The growth in deposits in the national currency reflects an increase in real incomes and stronger savings behaviour among citizens amid tightening monetary policy.

The regulator notes that persistent external inflationary risks — unstable energy prices, rising global food prices and inflationary pressure in partner countries — are increasing pressure on imported goods. In these conditions, raising the discount rate to 11% is intended to ensure that price dynamics remain within the target range in the medium term.

The National Bank emphasises that it will continue to closely monitor external and internal factors. If necessary, the regulator is ready to adjust monetary conditions to ensure price stability.

The next meeting of the Board on the policy rate is scheduled for 26 January 2026.