Published
01/19/2026, 15:41In its Article IV report for 2025, the IMF notes that Kyrgyzstan's economy appears to be stable: GDP is growing, inflation is falling and public debt is declining. However, the actual debt burden may be higher than reflected in official statistics.
The reason for this is support for state-owned enterprises. When the state covers their losses or takes on their debts, this is not always visible in the budget, but the country's total debt increases. According to IMF estimates, such hidden liabilities added an average of about 2% of GDP per year.
Because of this, in order to keep public debt at 50% of GDP, the budget needs a surplus of about 2.5% of GDP, rather than 0.5% as shown in the baseline calculations. Otherwise, debt will grow, even with an outwardly stable economy.
