Kyrgyzstan has estimated the cost of adapting to climate change at 74.5 billion KGS

Kyrgyzstan will need around 74.5 billion KGS to adapt its economy and infrastructure to climate change by 2035. More than half of this amount is planned to be raised from international partners and climate funds.

The Ministry of Natural Resources has put the National Adaptation Plan up to 2035 out for public consultation. The draft was published on 3 September, and the consultation period will run until 18 September.

The plan is divided into three phases. Measures for 2026–2029 will require 31.6 billion KGS, those for 2030–2032 will require 25.9 billion KGS, and those for 2033–2035 will require a further 17 billion KGS.

International organisations and climate funds are expected to be the main source of funding, accounting for 39.9 billion KGS, or 53.6 per cent of total expenditure. It is envisaged that 16.6 billion KGS will be allocated from the national budget and 10.6 billion from local budgets. The contribution from the private sector is estimated at 7.4 billion KGS.

The document itself acknowledges that heavy reliance on external funding poses a risk to the plan’s implementation. Receipt of funds will depend on whether Kyrgyzstan can prepare projects that meet the requirements of international climate funds.

The need for investment stems from the growing damage caused by climate change. Since the start of the 21st century, the area covered by glaciers in the country has shrunk by 16–17 per cent. Even without further warming, their volume could decrease by a further 36 per cent by 2050.

In the decade leading up to 2023, direct damage from mudslides and floods exceeded 15 billion KGS. In 2024, around 26 per cent of the water abstracted from natural sources was lost during transmission. Without adaptation measures, the economic losses could amount to 2–3 per cent of GDP by 2040 and reach 4.2 per cent by 2050.

Funds are planned to be channelled towards modernising irrigation and drinking water systems, protecting settlements from mudslides and floods, restoring pastures, forests and catchment areas, reinforcing roads and other infrastructure, and developing early warning systems.

By 2035, the authorities aim to reduce water losses by at least 30 per cent, lower the proportion of degraded pastures from 42 per cent to 30 per cent, and convert at least 150,000 hectares of agricultural land to climate-resilient technologies. Another objective is to ensure that at least 70 per cent of the population living in areas of high climate risk are covered by protective measures.

It is also proposed that climate risks be taken into account when constructing and modernising state-owned facilities. By 2035, at least 90 per cent of state and municipal investment projects in priority sectors must undergo a relevant assessment.

Once the document has been approved, the Ministry of Natural Resources is to establish an inter-ministerial working group and draw up a detailed action plan within six months.