The National Bank has not ruled out the possibility of inflation in Kyrgyzstan rising to 15 per cent in 2026

Inflation in Kyrgyzstan could reach 15 per cent by the end of 2026 if global food and energy prices continue to rise and the conflict in the Middle East intensifies. This is stated in the regulator’s forecast, issued at the end of the first quarter of the year.

Inflation in the country has already reached double figures. In July 2026, annual inflation stood at 11.5 per cent compared with July 2025.

The National Bank has revised its previous estimates due to new external risks. As recently as December 2025, the National Bank had expected to keep inflation at around 10 per cent in the absence of further shocks. Now, in an adverse scenario, price rises could reach double figures and reach 15 per cent.

The situation has been influenced by a reversal in global food prices, which, after falling in 2025, began to rise again from February 2026. The conflict in the Middle East is creating additional pressure. It has led to higher oil and fuel prices, increased transport costs and new restrictions on logistics.

Kyrgyzstan is particularly sensitive to such changes due to the high proportion of imported goods in the consumer basket. Consequently, the rise in global prices is gradually being reflected in domestic food prices. Another contributing factor is the elevated inflation in the republic’s main trading partners.

Domestic factors are also driving price rises, namely the planned increase in electricity and utility tariffs, higher budget expenditure, wage rises, funding for infrastructure projects and growing consumer spending. The National Bank specifically noted the rise in the cost of hotel and restaurant services against the backdrop of fiscal reforms.

That said, the regulator considers the current inflationary pressure to be predominantly non-monetary — it is primarily linked to external geopolitical and price shocks.

The 15 per cent estimate is not an absolute forecast. Such a level is possible should the external situation deteriorate further. The National Bank’s monetary policy will be aimed at curbing secondary price rises and gradually bringing inflation back to the target range of 5–7 per cent in the medium term.