Published
04/09/2026, 09:34The National Bank of Kyrgyzstan has assessed the non-banking sector’s resilience to a deterioration in loan quality. According to the stress test, if the share of non-performing loans rises to 30.6%, the sector could incur losses of up to 4.18 billion KGS, and the financial indicators of these institutions would deteriorate significantly.
The stress testing was conducted to assess how changes in the quality of the loan portfolio would affect the financial condition of non-bank financial and credit organizations. The regulator considered three scenarios involving a deterioration in the loan structure: 50%, 75%, and 100% of loans shifting to higher-risk categories.
As a result, the share of non-performing loans in the NFI portfolio could rise from current levels to 18.4% in the moderate scenario, 24.5% in the more severe scenario, and 30.6% in the stress scenario.
At the same time, the burden on reserves increases sharply. The volume of reserves to cover potential losses could rise from 96.9% to 178.1% of the loan portfolio, depending on the scenario. In other words, institutions will have to allocate a significant portion of their funds to cover risks, reducing opportunities for growth and lending.
The deterioration in loan quality directly affects the sector’s financial indicators. According to the National Bank’s estimates, if these scenarios materialize, non-bank financial institutions could incur losses of 402.1 million, 2.79 billion, and 4.18 billion KGS, respectively. At the same time, the organizations’ equity capital will decline.
